Managing Expectations

Great article by WSJ's Jared Sandberg in today's edition i.e. why over-estimating deliverable schedules can make you look like a star..But there are caveats to this strategy, and managing expectations is a tight rope to walk on.. Here's an excerpt--the link brings you to WSJ online and you need to be a subscriber to access the entire article...

Why Preparing Others
For an Effort's Failure
Can Bring You Success
January 16, 2007;

To understand how Tony Sharpe approaches managing expectations, consider what happened in "Star Trek": Captain Kirk's grumbling engineer, Montgomery Scott, admitted that in order to be viewed as a "miracle worker," he had padded his time estimates for finishing jobs so he could handily beat them.

"That's pretty much how I manage my clients' expectations," says Mr. Sharpe, an advertising executive. He might tell clients that certain work may involve extra time or money, or that he might not be able to do it at all. "Then I come back with it done," he says.

Asked why he does this, Mr. Sharpe responds that the tactic helps him ensure that there will be only good surprises, which can help "keep clients from getting mad at us." As long as the results are positive, he says, "they won't even notice you're crying wolf."

In January, the clock starts ticking for all kinds of company measures, from budgets to performance reviews. The next 11 months are spent trying hard to manage expectations about how these things will turn out. In a system where the facts don't govern opinions nearly as much as expectations do, failure to manage those expectations properly can turn success into failure or a well done deed into a disappointment.

That's why, for example, a company that has just reported a 4% gain in net income compared with a year earlier might still suffer a drop in share price. And it's why rain-making employees can lose their luster compared with laggards who surprise everybody by showing some small evidence of a pulse.

When Joe Glavin managed a software development group, a project manager who was developing record-keeping software for him kept reporting that everything was "Going great!" But a week before the scheduled rollout, the project manager "behaved as if he was being chased by a loan shark," says Mr. Glavin, and then finally admitted that the whole system was unusable. Mr. Glavin ended up getting burned, and the project manager "never got a management assignment again," Mr. Glavin says.

You would think the tactic of managing expectations downward would be so obvious that it wouldn't work. But, as Wendy Wood, a professor of psychology at Duke University, notes: "You can be a physicist and study gravity and still fall down."

One explanation for why managing expectations downward works so well may be the psychological phenomenon of "anchoring," or the tendency to overvalue an early piece of information, such as an expectation set by an employee. Even as new information surfaces, notes Max Bazerman, a professor of business administration at Harvard Business School, "We adjust insufficiently. Wherever we start from has a significant influence on our final estimate."

Research also suggests that the penalty for missing expectations can be greater than the benefit for beating them. In his research on promises, Nicholas Epley, assistant professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business, concluded that while breaking a promise is bad, "exceeding a promise is often not worth the effort." In other words, he says, people sometimes value beating expectations little more than meeting them.

That's why managing expectations downward is so widespread. "The chips are stacked against us," says Prof. Epley. First, employees, investors and bosses don't normally expect failure, so expectations are generally high. Second, "the loss from that already high expectation is going to be that much more painful."

Melissa Marsh, an IT project manager who works on deploying new software systems, concurs. "You project the worst-case scenario publicly, when you fully anticipate that you will be able to bring the system up earlier," she says. After all, she says, to deliver 99% of what you promised only leads people to sorely miss the remaining one percent.

"There are a lot of opportunities to disappoint people," she says, "and it can be really difficult to impress them."

• Email Jared Sandberg at jared.sandberg@wsj.com

Marketing Pizza-

Let's just bag it all and open a pizzeria. Its a cash business, and the margins are great.

But be careful if trying to be innovative in the course of marketing--you might attract the wrath of lunatics.. Case in point--The brouhahaha over Pizza Patron--a 59-store franchise based in Dallas that is promoting "pay in pesos" in its East Dallas locations---to accomodate customers that are on the cusp of the Tex-Mex border ..
Its actually a brilliant idea--as demonstrated by the increase in sales since the promotion was launched. The fact that the company is now receiving all kinds of complaints from anti-immigration zealots--including the Washington, DC-based Center for Immigration Studies is appalling.

And if you ask me, its anti-American.
The entire foundation to our country is based on the melting pot philosophy. And a private enterprise working to accomodate customers ease in paying for products/services emodies the entire foundation...
Shame on those that take exception to Pizza Patron's innovative business strategy.

What is "Best Practices"

Great insight from Razorfish's David Baker...Below excerpt from this week's MediaPost

THE BUZZ PHRASE FOR YEARS has been, "let's apply best practices" to help improve our e-mail or online programs. We go through the same motions, we look at what has worked for others and try to repurpose the key call-outs for our own programs.

I'm as guilty as every other strategist or consultant in our space who makes "best practices" presentations to clients, spouting every statistic in the book to describe the consumer/marketer landscape and what works. But when push comes to shove, and I have to show five "best practices" examples of relevancy in e-mail programs, triggered e-mail programs, surveys, opt-in registration pages, or media creative... I grit my teeth and smile and present work from the industry to show what others are doing. Does that make it "best practices," though? I've seen three presentations from e-mail vendors in the last month about "best practices," and I find them less and less useful.

Best practices are like benchmarks. They are very personal and contextual. Applied incorrectly, best practices can become handcuffs. Let's face it, you can't build a differentiated business or strategy around some other company's work. While I don't completely discount looking at what's happening with your competitors or others in the online marketing space--and I've stolen an more than an idea or two that way myself--too many marketers and consultants have a copy-and-paste mentality these days. We're 10 years into this channel, and there are very few things that we haven't tried in e-mail marketing. Yes, the landscape has changed; we have more robust technology, better reporting, more dynamic abilities, a more complex delivery environment, and a more complex consumer to reach. However, the principles of what works in marketing have not changed. Honestly, I still refresh from best practice presentations from years ago and chuckle when I see the same content re invented today.

I tend to scoff at people who tout the "best practices" as a test-and-learn approach. They remind me of the consultant who did a brainstorming session and wrote everyone's comments on a large sheet of paper. After the session he walked out of the meeting and left the sheet with all the critical feedback on it behind. What's worse, he never realized his mistake or called up to ask for it. We felt cheated, as is the case with most "testing" strategies.

When you've been in the space long enough, you have already learned or figured out 80% of what you need to do to be successful at e-mail and integrating it into your interactive or customer relationship programs. The value you bring is your ability to apply it as quickly and efficiently as possible. This is called "applied learning".

As marketers, we are so tasked with production-side marketing that we are relying on artificial creativity to spawn our programs. We need to build interruption exercises into our routine to infuse creativity into our programs.

While many folks make a living off copying other programs and tactics and re-applying them in a different context, the best marketing programs don't rely on best practices alone. They rely on a mix of discipline, business rules, creativity, and timely intervention to reinvigorate the programs and teams.

Marketing the Armed Forces

Fact #1: The Bush Fiefdom has made it clear that GWB's legacy will include a massive build up in US Armed Forces. Aside from wanting to send another 20,000 or so boys and girls to Baghdad, we all know that he wants to leave office with a US troop presence in half the middle-eastern countries, Africa, and who knows where else.

Problem is--there's barely enough National Guardsmen available for a hurricane in the US, no less Department of Defense enlistees that could occupy 1/4 of the globe.

Its not as if the Army, Navy, Marines or Air Force don't offer a great career building and a free education opportunity. OK, so the downside from joining up is that odds are high that before your tour is up, you'll come home with less baggage (i.e. arms, legs etc.). Or, if you have the same misfortune as a former US Marine that joined a private security company under contract to the US Govt in Iraq--you'll uncover massive corruption, blow the whistle, be enlisted by the FBI as an informant, and ultimately find yourself in Guantanamo for 3 months as a suspected terrorist.. (Yet another truly remarkable story illustrating the complete stupidity of upper management and the total lack of communication)

Anyway--ever see the last series of TV and print ads being put out by the various armed forces division? The worst, right? Of course they are...and of course its our tax dollars that are paying the media agencies tens of millions to send exactly the wrong message. When will they learn to appeal to today's audience???

We Train You To Be A Leader Skills. Before and after joining: quick shot of a teenager flipping burgers at Mickey D's..flash forward to him strolling in Navy formals past a brigade, all jumping to attentiona and saluting..

Education: Instead of you spending 100k on a 4 year college program, WE spend 100k minimum teaching you foreign languages, technology skills, special skills--all of which are in demand when you graduate and go back into the private sector.

Career Path: Once we've spent the 100k, taught you a wide range of skills--the job market is waiting for you. Flash image of solider turning his fatigues, and walking across the street (ok, its Main Street in Fallujah) to sign a contract with a private security company--which is under contract to Uncle Sam. But instead of getting paid $500 a week before taxes--you'll be getting $1500 a week.

We get your mind AND Body into shape. Throw in a few video snips of muscle toned guys and gals in green t's working out in a health club.. (not climbing ropes at Camp Lejuene!!)

If you believe that NSA or some other alphabet division monitors everything on the internet and focuses on "buzz words" like those included here---maybe some twit analyst has an uncle working at a media company and he can steal the ideas here and put them into action.

Integrated Advertising-Turnkey Solution

3 months ago, resident guru Jay Berkman spotlighted SpotRunner--a new, web2.0 enterprise servicing small businesses seeking an efficient, cost effective way to advertise via local network and Cable TV. The company's platform provides a menu of 15 & 30 second spot templates specific to your industry/business offering, then allows you to select from a menu of media stations, and time schedules that you want your ad to broadcast. You can build a TV campaign that runs for 4 weeks on multiple networks, runs your spot upwards of 100 times, all for less than the cost of a full page print ad in your local newspaper. And the cost includes the actual spot.

No surprise that the Dec 18 edition of the Wall Street Journal profiled this company within the Media/Marketing section...Case study: a florist that spends 100k/year on advertising (primarily Google Adwords) his two retail stores. He re-allocated 5k of his budget to SpotRunner and sales increased 20% in one month. Goes without saying what the florist has since done i.e. budgeting advertising.

Website Copywriting 101

You're a genius marketer and you know everything about the differences between copy that's appropriate for a website vs. copy that you incorporate into collateral...Then again, tips like those below might enlighten you..(courtesy of this week's edition of Startup Nation--but you don't have to be a start-up to learn from these 10 basic tips!)

Here are 10 website writing tips to help get you started:

• Address people directly as “you.” This personalizes your message and involves readers directly. Too many small business sites say “we” this and “we” that, never bothering to involve the customer.
• Write like you talk. Be friendly. Use contractions and expressions, just as people use in everyday speech. Use anecdotes. In other words, don’t be boring.
• Let your passion about your product or service come through in your online voice. Show that you believe in what you are doing.
• Testimonials are a powerful credibility tool for most small business websites. Feature them prominently. Place two or three of your best testimonial quotes or anecdotes up front. Sprinkle others throughout the site. Use them to reinforce specific points of your sales pitch.
• Keep your writing simple. Avoid jargon and overly-technical explanations, “corporate-speak” and excessive use of capital letters (boldface is better) or exclamation points. Clarity is key. Keep sentences and paragraphs short to conform to the short time you have a visitor's attention.
• Write tight. Cut unnecessary words. If you mean to say, “If there’s a problem,” don’t write “In the event of an unsatisfactory experience.”
• Talk benefits, not features — age-old copywriting advice that applies equally to the web. Will your product or service save me time? Make me money? Entertain me or make me feel better?
• Don’t plop a mission statement on your homepage. Most are boring and repetitive. Visitors don’t care.
• Build credibility with a guarantee or free trial. Show a small photo of yourself, and perhaps your place of business.
• Proofread everything at least three times. Spelling, factual and grammatical goofs cramp your credibility.

Ad Buying: The Basics

Courtesy of Denny Hatch's latest newsletter... As always, its the basic tips that demystify the process that experts often seem to forget (or over-complicate)

* Never hire a general agency to write, design and place direct response advertising. And don’t do it yourself.

* Before placing an insertion order for a direct response ad, learn everything you can about the publication as well as the readers and their behavior. Be sure that it regularly carries off-the-page ads, ideally for your competitors’ products. Put another way, if your competitors aren’t advertising there, chances are they tested it and it didn’t work.


1. Never buy retail. Only if you absolutely must have page 3 or page 5 of a major magazine should you pay full price. The reason: virtually all magazine publishers and reps negotiate and will sell space at up to 60 percent off.

2. One technique: Hang back until closing and then call at the last minute. Most magazines will take a space reservation up to 10 days after closing. Have the ad ready and the money set aside in your budget so you can move quickly and take advantage of a deal.

3. For budgeting purposes, start with a projected response of one order per thousand circulation and work down or up from there based on experience.

4. Use experienced direct response media buyers. Buying media wisely is a very time-consuming business. Prices, percentage points and response rates are constantly changing, and media buyers dedicate 100 percent of their time to being one step ahead of the game. In media buying, how you play the game greatly affects whether you will win or lose.

Private Equity Firms To Buy Ecuador...

Private Equity firm Blackston Group has partnered with Apoloo Investments in a bid to purchase the country of Ecuador--the first of what many analysts expect to be a new focus for private equity firms with hordes of cash and significant access to credit markets. According to sources that asked not to be identified, Merill Lunch and Credit Swiss will serve as bankers on the deal.....

Noted one Wall Street researcher "This is just the beginning...a country like Ecuador has signifcant untapped natural resources, a cheap labor force, and a strategic location. No doubt current management of the country will be in a much better position to execute its business plan, without having the World Bank breathing down its neck. It's anybody' guess when the the country will be taken public via an IPO...but its no doubt part of the private equity game plan."

Gotta love it...If GWB had thought of this approach in dealing with Iraq--simply buying the country and paying its citizens to go along with the program, no doubt we'd have saved billions, would have controlled the oil fields, and most importantly, we would have avoided losing so many of our own that have been put in harm's way....Is anybody listening?????

Marketing Widgets: You Saw it Here First : Addiem

The nice thing about the internet is that it time stamps brilliant observations...one that resident guru Jay Berkman made several months ago after tripping over Synovativ Technology's and their Addiem "widget"

Today's article in Wall Street Journal profiles the burgeoning trend in web-based applications that are designed to deliver uncluttered messages to captive audiences. Can you spell Permission-Based Marketing. OK...definitely not a new concept..but its always refreshing to know that we can spot 'em! Article is below:

Web-Page Clocks and Other 'Widgets'
Anchor New Internet Strategy

Gadgets Give Marketers
Access to Personal Sites
Unreachable by Banner Ads

By EMILY STEEL
November 21, 2006; Page B4

To generate buzz for this winter's launch of the film "Freedom Writers," Paramount Pictures decided it needed a cutting-edge Internet advertising strategy. Blitzing the Web with banner ads wasn't good enough.

So Amy Powell, senior vice president of interactive marketing at the Viacom-owned movie studio, turned to something that she and other major marketers see as the next generation of advertising on the Web: widgets. Easily accessible from various Web sites, widgets are tiny computer programs that allow everyday people to incorporate professional-looking content into their personal Web pages or computer desktops.

Typical desktop widgets, also referred to as "gadgets," include self-updating news feeds, clocks, calculators and weather information -- usually framed by or positioned next to a brand name or promotional consideration of some kind. Yahoo and Google provide such desktop widgets as stock tickers and airline schedules. Widgets that users publish on their Web sites or MySpace profiles are generally more advanced, including things such as chat boxes, videogames, polls and video.

Ms. Powell and many other marketers see sponsoring widgets as a promising route to consumers because they integrate advertising onto the Web page. It is a more-relevant approach than banner advertising, she says, and less annoying than video ads that take over the screen. Widgets are also one of the only ways marketers can get inside MySpace pages because the popular News Corp. social-networking site doesn't sell advertising on individual members' pages.

Most types of widgets also offer the marketers the chance to monitor eyeballs, because a user's click on one of these live features can be counted as easily as a click on a banner ad.

"I don't believe in banner advertising," Ms. Powell says. "It's important to create content that speaks to different audience segments where they are."

For the January release of "Freedom Writers," which stars Hilary Swank as a teacher who inspires students affected by violence, poverty and racism to change their lives through keeping journals, Paramount is working with Freewebs, a closely held company in Silver Spring, Md., that provides free tools for consumers to build Web sites.

Visitors to the Freewebs site can upload programs from the movie-themed "toolkit for self-expression" -- including a photo album, video injector and chat box -- all of which can be used on an individual's profile page. The widgets incorporate references to the film, such as a "Be Heard" Web template.

Advertisers can piggyback on Web-page content tools known as 'widgets.'

Set for a December launch, the widgets will build on a YouTube campaign already in motion. On a video posted on a Paramount-created YouTube group, a "Freedom Writers" actor, Jason Finn, talks about growing up in a tough Los Angeles neighborhood. "The way I deal with my anger or the way I deal with my pain is I express it. Instead of bottling it up, I hurry up and write it down," he says in the video, which has been viewed more than 275,000 times since it was posted last week.

Paramount is one of the first companies to embrace what some are calling the "widgetization of the Web," but others are not far behind. Reebok is creating a widget that allows users to display customized pairs of RBK shoes for others to critique. Time Inc. is creating gadgets for magazines such as People, Sports Illustrated and Time to provide live updates. Once dragged onto Microsoft's new operating system, the gadgets will automatically update themselves on a user's desktop PC with news from the various titles.

San Francisco-based interactive agency AKQA just created a weather widget to promote Microsoft Flight Simulator X for Xbox. The widget allows users to virtually fly and find out the weather at any airport through a live feed from the National Weather Service -- giving PC users a taste of what the videogame offers. In the past two months, users have downloaded the widget more than 150,000 times, spending an average of 23 minutes with the flight simulator, the agency says.

OJ Simpson--What is FOX Thinking????

Sure, we can all debate the ethical and moral issues of Rupert Murdoch's allowing his various media platforms (book publishing and TV) to promote OJ Simpson's latest chapter.

But the fact remains, the TV interview(s) scheduled on FOX is likely to bring in an audience that will blow away any other TV event...whether comparing to Super Bowl stats, the Who Shot J.R. episode of Dallas---or the first astronauts landing on the moon. It'll be a media coup. And if Fox hasn't lined up advertisers, no doubt some French brand marketer will seize the opportunity if all others find the subject too appalling.

As for the book...its sort of unbelievable to think that anyone would pay money to read it--especially knowing that the proceeds are going into OJ's back pocket.

But lots of people (NOT ME) are into ghoulish subjects---and based on advance snippets of the TV interview, OJ won't be disappointing anyone that likes ghouls.